At long last, the Eurozone has some good news on the economy even though it is mainly thanks to the strong German recovery and a cold weather fuelled jump in energy output. It is a relief to see a change from the dour news that has dominated from the debt crisis in recent months. It will still be a long haul out of recession for the Eurozone, but at least Germany is leading the way to recovery. Besides the 3.8% mom jump in energy output due to the cold weather spell at least there are some other bright spots. Output of durable consumer goods jumped by 1.9% mom, perhaps indicative of some embryonic life coming back into Eurozone consumer sentiment. Capital goods production increased by 1.2% mom, suggesting some signs of recovery in the global investment cycle, even though it may be bypassing capital restructuring in the Eurozone outside of Germany.
The jump in Eurozone industrial production in March is not the end of the story. Nor does it let Eurozone policymakers off the hook. There is a long way to go before the Eurozone economy is out of the woods on recession. The ECB needs to ply a lot more monetary stimulus across the board to fuel recovery. Eurozone governments also need to effect a massive U-turn away from austerity, back towards counter-cyclical fiscal stimulus. Mercifully, some EU governments are already starting to throwing off the shackles of deep budgetary restraint, but there is still a long way to go. The Eurozone will still be steeped in recession throughout 2013, but it will depend on a deep change of heart to ensure recession does not endure through into 2014. It is not over yet.
Industrial production - monthly variation
pct change compared with previous month (seasonally adjusted)
Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13
EA17
Total industry -0.7 -0.7 0.7 -0.6 0.3 1.0
Intermediate goods -0.7 -0.9 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1
Energy -1.0 -0.4 -1.4 0.1 1.9 3.8
Capital goods -1.9 0.2 0.8 -1.7 0.9 1.2
Durable consumer goods -1.7 -1.3 1.9 -1.8 0.7 1.9
Non-durable consumer goods 0.9 -1.4 2.0 0.2 -1.5 -0.7
EU27
Total industry -0.5 -0.6 0.6 -0.5 0.3 0.9
Intermediate goods -0.6 -0.9 0.3 -0.2 0.1 -0.2
Energy -0.9 -0.1 -0.8 -0.3 1.2 3.0
Capital goods -1.5 0.2 0.8 -1.4 0.6 1.2
Durable consumer goods -0.5 -1.7 1.1 -0.7 -0.2 2.2
Non-durable consumer goods 0.5 -1.3 1.4 0.7 -1.4 -0.2
pct change compared with previous month (seasonally adjusted)
Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13
EA17
Total industry -0.7 -0.7 0.7 -0.6 0.3 1.0
Intermediate goods -0.7 -0.9 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1
Energy -1.0 -0.4 -1.4 0.1 1.9 3.8
Capital goods -1.9 0.2 0.8 -1.7 0.9 1.2
Durable consumer goods -1.7 -1.3 1.9 -1.8 0.7 1.9
Non-durable consumer goods 0.9 -1.4 2.0 0.2 -1.5 -0.7
EU27
Total industry -0.5 -0.6 0.6 -0.5 0.3 0.9
Intermediate goods -0.6 -0.9 0.3 -0.2 0.1 -0.2
Energy -0.9 -0.1 -0.8 -0.3 1.2 3.0
Capital goods -1.5 0.2 0.8 -1.4 0.6 1.2
Durable consumer goods -0.5 -1.7 1.1 -0.7 -0.2 2.2
Non-durable consumer goods 0.5 -1.3 1.4 0.7 -1.4 -0.2
Industrial production - annual variation
pct change compared with same month of the previous year (working day adjusted)
Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13
EA17
Total industry -3.1 -4.0 -2.1 -2.5 -3.2 -1.7
Intermediate goods -4.2 -5.6 -4.8 -4.1 -3.1 -4.6
Energy -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -1.1 -6.5 9.2
Capital goods -3.6 -4.4 -1.8 -3.9 -3.8 -3.1
Durable consumer goods -5.3 -6.5 -2.7 -7.3 -5.1 -2.2
Non-durable consumer goods -1.9 -2.3 -0.3 1.8 0.6 -3.1
EU27
Total industry -2.9 -3.6 -2.1 -2.5 -2.6 -1.1
Intermediate goods -3.7 -5.0 -4.4 -4.3 -2.7 -4.0
Energy -1.5 -1.1 -0.6 -1.2 -6.2 6.7
Capital goods -3.0 -3.8 -1.5 -3.2 -3.0 -2.1
Durable consumer goods -3.4 -5.6 -3.0 -5.3 -4.3 -0.7
Non-durable consumer goods -1.7 -2.1 -1.0 1.1 1.0 -1.8
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