Eurozone economic confidence is back in business again,
rising to 102.7 in May from 102.0 in April. But the Eurozone recovery still
needs more of a lift. Consumer and business confidence is rising but is still
generally diffident about the outlook ahead. Uncertainty about global economic
prospects, worries about the crisis in the Ukraine and the long wait for
additional ECB easing have been clouding the recent picture. But this should
all change next week once the ECB shifts into an easier credit gear again. An
interest rate cut into negative territory and a decisive step towards
quantitative easing should do the trick. If the ECB can deliver the goods on
significantly easier monetary policy, the obstruction to faster Eurozone
recovery could clear quite quickly. Growth expectations for the next year could
double from 1% to 2%. It would mean the ECB’s acceptance of a radically weaker
euro and the risk of higher inflation but this is what the Eurozone recovery
needs right now. The EU summit this week is looking for a change in the
political landscape and demanding faster growth and more job creation to blunt
the election in-roads made by euro sceptic parties. It is time for the ECB to
grasp the nettle. The price will be a much weaker euro, but a stronger Eurozone
economy will be the reward.
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