Without a doubt, the ECB needs another rate cut. High Noon
is approaching fast. The list of indictments on ECB policy failings is growing
rapidly. Eurozone economic confidence remains fragile. The embryonic recovery
risks slipping back into recession. Deflation remains an imminent threat. The
euro is too strong. The economy is subsumed by domestic credit contraction. The
banks are not lending. Consumers and businesses are not borrowing. The Eurozone
is already awash with liquidity. The ECB throwing more money into the pot is
hardly going to make much difference. The money is not getting through to the
parts of the economy that really need it. The ECB needs to incentivise the
banks into lending more. One way to do this is to cut the official deposit rate
into negative territory charging the banks for holding money at the ECB.
Without the lifeblood of cheaper, more abundant bank lending, the Eurozone
recovery will wither on the vine. The odds are that the ECB will need to keep
rates close to zero for years to come.
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