Weak bank lending is still strangling the Eurozone economic
recovery. The Eurozone banks have plentiful access to cheap money from the ECB,
but they are not passing it through to consumers or businesses who really need
it. Loans to the private sector continue to contract. Annual growth in loans to
Eurozone households and companies is in negative territory to the tune of an
underlying minus 3%. This is unsustainable in the long run. Without some quick
intervention by the ECB, the Eurozone recovery will wither on the vine. What
the Eurozone economy needs right now is much faster credit expansion, not
credit contraction. The Eurozone banks need to be deterred from holding onto
funds and encouraged to re-engage lending. The ECB can do this by cutting the
official deposit rate, the interest rate for holding money with the ECB, and
moving it into negative territory. This means banks will be charged for holding
funds rather than releasing them go into the economy. Eurozone M3 money supply
growth at 1.2% is well below the ECB’s 4.5% reference target rate. The ECB have
their work cut out to get the economy moving into the fast lane of recovery
again. Cutting Eurozone rates into negative territory, embarking into
quantitative easing and weakening the euro would be the best policy avenues
going forwards. Fortunately the latest whispers from the ECB and Bundesbank
suggest that the policy die-hards are finally starting to wake up to.
No comments:
Post a Comment